Greg Carmichael
Regional
Scale Forecasting and Experiment-Specific Emission Estimates
of Gas and Aerosol Distributions in Support of the TRACE-P
Experiment
Abstract
A
research plan to conduct regional
scale forecasting and to prepare experiment-specific emission
estimates of key
aerosol and gaseous species in East Asia in support of the TRACE-P
experiment is proposed. Two specific activities are proposed:
(1)
Provide experiment-specific emission estimates of primary aerosol
and gaseous precursors needed to conduct detailed chemical/aerosol
modeling in the region;
(2) Provide 3-dimensional regional-scale
forecasts of aerosol and trace gas distributions in support of the intensive
field operations.
Improved
estimates of emissions are needed to support modeling efforts
in the field and post mission, and to assist in the interpretation
of the observations. Our proposed work related to this activity
builds strongly upon on-going work. An important aspect of our
past and present research efforts has been related to improving
emission estimates of primary particulates and trace gases in
East Asia. In this proposed work we will focus on improving the
temporal and spatial resolution of these emissions to provide
emission estimates to directly support the TRACE-P experiment.
One aspect of this work will be to develop emission estimates
that correspond to the temporal characteristics of the Trace-P
experiment (i.e., month-specific with some day/hourly variation).
Measurements from the monitoring activities in the region should
provide valuable information on seasonal and daily variations,
that may be used in this emissions work. Improvements in the
spatial resolution will build upon our information on large point
sources, and will also utilize additional satellite derived quantities
such as aerosol index from TOMS, column NOx from GOME,
etc.
The
second major effort of our proposal will be directed towards
providing 3-dimensional forecasts of aerosol and trace gas distributions
in support of the intensive field operations using a combined
modeling system that includes on-line and off-line versions of
STEM, coupled with the RAMS model. We propose two types of products
to be produced during the Ace-Asia intensive period:
Product
#1: 3-dimensional forecasts of tracer fields using RAMS, with tracer-transport
done on-line within RAMS. Here we plan to produce continuous
48-hour forecasts of a variety of tracers/markers to support
the planning of the next day missions. The meteorological
and tracer fields will be displayed in Vis5d to facilitate
trajectory and other analysis in support of mission planning.
Product #2: 3-dimensional
forecasts of chemical and aerosol fields. Here we propose to
use the meteorological fields from Product
#1 to drive STEM and to provide forecast fields of trace
gas and primary and secondary aerosol distributions. This analysis
will provide another level of detail, specifically related to
trace gas distributions as well as the predicted fields of secondary
and primary aerosol, for use in mission planning.
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