ACE-1 Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Daily Operations Report

Day: 319 (15 November 1995)  

Mission:
 

  Primary Mission : none scheduled
  Alternate: N/A 
  Future Mission(s) : none scheduled

Aircraft Operations

  No mission scheduled.

  Take-off Time:
   Pre-flight Briefing Time:      none scheduled
                    Updates:      none scheduled
  Airborne Mission Scientist: N/A
  Mission Scientist:  N/A


Ship Operations

  Discoverer:
     Discoverer departs Hobart at 0700 UTC 15 Nov. (1800 hrs local, 15 Nov), 
     for direct transit to Macquarie Island.
     Discoverer Lead Scientist: Tim Bates   


  Southern Surveyor:
     Southern Surveyor departs Hobart at 1900 UTC 15 Nov (0600 hrs local, 
     16 Nov.) for Cape Grim.
     Southern Surveyor Lead Scientist: Bronte Tilbrook

Systems Status:

       Aircraft: Work planned on aircraft systems and instruments after 
                 successful ferry. 
     Discoverer: All major systems on Discoverer are operational. 
                 Ammonia still being worked on.
   So. Surveyor: All major systems operational on Southern Surveyor.  
                 Checkout to begin on cruise tomorrow. 
      Cape Grim: Cape Grim installation continues.  Most systems 
                 operational and work continues on stable sulfur and TDMA 
                 systems.

Forecast and Relevant Analyses

Visible Sat Picture is here

Streamline analysis is here

GASP trajectory analysis is here

Synoptic Situaton at: 00z 15/11/95

A 1004 hPa low located near 43S 151E moving eastwards at about 15 knots is forecast to weaken and be close to 43S 158E at 12z tonight, 43s 162z at 00z Thursday and 40S 167E at 12z Thursday.

A 1023 hPa high centred near 36S 134E moving east at 10/15 knots is forecast to be close to 38S 145E at 00z tomorrow, then over the Tasman Sea tomorrow near 40S 153E by 12z.

A cold front was located near 50S 138E/42S 130E/40S 123E at 04z moving east at 20/25kts with a low 55S 133E moving east at 25 knots.

Further west, a low over the West Australian coast is forecast to develop as it moves southeastwards, to be located near 40S 125E at 12z Thursday night with a central pressure of 1004hPa.

Prognoses:

For the next 36 hours, the progs are reasonably consistent the the progged positions for the above systems is common to most. Following 12z tomorrow night hiwever, the models show marked variation in the movement and development of the low south of Western Australia. The Australian GASP model moves this low southeastwards very quickly, such that by 12z Friday, it centres the low southeast of Tasmania near 48S 152E, whereas the European Centre model, US aviation model and the UK Met service models all keep the low to the west of Tasmania near 40S 130E. While none of the models have an outstanding record with this type of low pressure development, the EC position is preferred at this stage and is the model that has been used for the above positions.

Forecasts:

For Discoverer:

Weather: Showers developing upon moving S of Tasmania, increasing tonight ahead of the front then easing during the day to just occasional light showers or drizzle later.

W/SW winds 15/20 knots, locally 25 knots near Tasmania's south coast, tending northwesterly overnight and increasing to 20/25 knots and possibly 30 knots near the front. Winds backing southwesterly again with the front tomorrow morning and easing to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon. Seas 1.5 to 2.5 metres increasing to 3 at times overnight ahead of the front.. Westerly swell 2 to 3 metres.

For So. Surveyor:

For Cape Grim:

West to southwest winds 15 to 25 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots tonight then turning north to northeasterly tomorrow. A few light showers, particularly overnight, then becoming fine tomorrow.